Zhao, Q., Keele, L., and Small, D. (in press). ”Will Competition-Winning Methods for Causal Inference Also Succeed in Practice?” Statistical Science.

Keele, L., Harris, S., and Grieve, R. (in press). ”Does transfer to intensive care units reduce mortality? A comparison of an instrumental variables design to risk adjustment.” Medical Care.

Keele, L. and Small, D. (in press). ”Instrumental Variables: Don’t Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater.” Health Services Research.

Keele, L., Harris, S., Pimentel, S., and Grieve, R. (in press). ”Stronger Instruments and Refined Covariate Balance in an Observational Study of the Effectiveness of Prompt Admission to the ICU in the UK.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.

Kennedy, E., Harris, S., Keele, L.. (in press). ”Survivor-complier causal effects in the presence of selection on treatment, with an application studying prompt ICU admission.” Journal of the American Statistics Association.

Keele, L. and White, I. (in press). ”African-American Turnout in Majority-Minority Districts.” Political Science Research and Methods.

Keele, L., Elwert, F. and Stevenson, R. (in press). ”The Causal Interpretation of Estimated Associations in Regression Models.” Political Science Research and Methods.

Keele, L., Sharoky, C., Sellers, M., Wirtalla, C., Kelz, R. (in press). ”An Instrumental Variables Design for the Effect of Emergency General Surgery.” Epidemiologic Methods.

Pimentel, S., Page, L., Lenard, M., Keele, L. (in press). ”Optimal Multilevel Matching Using Network Flows: An Application to a Summer Reading Intervention.” The Annals of Applied Statistics.

Keele, L. and Miratrix, L. (in press). ”Randomization Inference for Outcomes with Clumping at Zero.” The American Statistician.

Keele, L. , Zhao, Q., Kelz, R., and Small, D. (2019). ”Falsification Tests for Instrumental Variable Designs with an Application to Tendency to Operate.” Medical Care. 57:2, 167–171.

Ding, P. and Keele, L. (2018). ”Robust Randomization-Based Inference in Unmatched Clustered Randomized Trials, With Application to the Teacher and Leader Evaluation Systems Intervention.” The Annals of Applied Statistics 12:4, 2151–2174.

Kang, H., Peck, L., and Keele, L. (2018). ”Inference for Instrumental Variables: A Randomization Inference Approach.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 181:4,1231–1254.

Keele, L. and Titiunik, R. (2018). ”Bounding Treatment Effects Under Interference in Geographic Natural Experiments: An Application to All-Mail Voting in Colorado.” CESifo Economic Studies 64:2, 127-149.

Sellers, M., Keele, L., Sharoky, C., Wirtalla, C., Bailey, E., Kelz, R. (2018). ”Association of Surgical Practice Patterns and Clinical Outcomes with Surgeon Training in University or Non-university-based Residency Program.” JAMA Surgery. 153:5, 418–425.

Sharoky, C., Sellers, M., Keele, L., Wirtalla, C., Morris, J., Kelz, R. (2018). ”Does Surgeon Gender Matter? Practice Patterns and Outcomes of Female and Male Surgeons.” Annals of Surgery. 267:6, 1069–1076.

Ross, R., Keele, L., Kubis, S., Lautz, A., Dziorny, A., Denson, A., O’Connor, K., Chilutti, M., Weiss, S., Gerber, J. (2018). ”Impact of Procalcitonin Availability on Antibiotic Utilization in Critically Ill Children.” Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. 7:2, e43–e46.

Keele, L., Small D., and Grieve R. (2017). ”Randomization Based Instrumental Variables Methods with an Application to the IMPROVE Trial.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 1870:2, 569–586.

Keele, L. and Quinn, M. (2017). “Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Effects from $2 \times 2$ Tables in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding with Application to Presidential Campaign Visits.” The Annals of Applied Statistics. 11:4, 1974–1997.

Keele, Luke J. and Jose Zubizarreta (2017). “Optimal Multilevel Matching in Clustered Observational Studies: A Case Study of the School Voucher System in Chile.” Journal of the American Statistical Society. 112:518, 547–560.

Keele, Luke J., Ismail White, Paru Shah, and Kristine Kay (2017). “Black Candidates and Black Turnout: A Study of Mayoral Elections in the New South.” Journal of Politics. 79:3, 780–791.

Keele, Luke J. and Jason Morgan (2016). “How Strong is Strong Enough? Strengthening Instruments Through Matching and Weak Instrument Tests.” Annals of Applied Statistics 10:2, 1086–1106.

Keele, Luke J., Rocio Titiunik, Matias Cattaneo, and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare. (2016). “Identification in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Multiple Cutoffs” Journal of Politics. 78:4, 1229-1248.

Keele, Luke J., Alisa Stephens and Marshall Joffe (2016). “Estimating Post-Treatment Effect Modification With Generalized Structural Mean Models.” Journal of Causal Inference. 2:4, 87–93.

Keele, L., Linn, S., and Webb, C. (2016). “Concluding Comments.” Political Analysis. 24:1, 83–86.

Keele, L., Linn, S., and Webb, C. (2016). “Treating Time With All Due Seriousness.” Political Analysis. 24:1, 31–41.

Keele, Luke J., Sam Pimentel and Frank Yoon (2015). “Variable Ratio Matching with Fine Balance in a Study of the Peer Health Exchange.” Statistics in Medicine. 34:30, 4070-4082.

Keele, Luke J., Teppei Yamamoto, and Dustin Tingley. (2015). “Identifying Mechanisms behind Policy Interventions via Causal Mediation Analysis.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. 34:4, 937-963.

Keele, Luke J. and Rocio Titiunik (2015). “Geographic Natural Experiments.” Political Science Research and Methods. 4:1, 65-95.

Keele, Luke J. (2015). “Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead.” American Journal of Evaluation. 36:4, 500–513.

Keele, Luke J. (2015). “The Statistics of Causal Inference” Political Analysis. 23:3, 313-335.

Keele, Luke J., Rocio Titiunik and Jose Zubizarreta (2015). “Enhancing a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design Through Matching to Estimate the Effect of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 178:1, 223-239.

Keele, Luke J. and Rocio Titiunik. (2015). “Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities.” Political Analysis. 23:1, 127-155.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke J. Keele, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2014). “mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis.” Journal of Statistical Software. 59:5, 1-38.

Keele, Luke J., Neil Malhotra, and Colin McCubbins. (2013). “Do Term Limits Restrain State Fiscal Policy? Approaches for Causal Inference in Assessing the Effects of Legislative Institutions” Legislative Studies Quarterly. 38:3, 291-396.

Keele, Luke J. and William Minozzi (2013). “How Much is Minnesota Like Wisconsin? Assumptions and Counterfactuals in Causal Inference with Observational Data” Political Analysis. 21:2, 193-216.

Keele, Luke J. and Corrine McConnaughy and Ismail White. (2012). “Strengthening the Experimenter’s Toolbox: Statistical Estimation of Internal Validity” American Journal of Political Science. 56:2, 484-499.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke J. Keele, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2011). “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review. 105:4, 765-789.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke J. Keele and Dustin Tingley. (2010). “A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis.” Psychological Methods. 15:4, 309-334.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke J. Keele and Teppei Yamamoto. (2010). “Identification, Inference, and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Mediation Effects.” Statistical Science. 25:1, 51-71.

Keele, Luke J. (2010). “Nonproportionally Difficult: Testing for Nonproportional Hazards In Cox Models.” Political Analysis. 18:2, 189-205.

Keele, Luke J. Michael, MacKuen, Jennifer Wolak, and George Marcus. (2010). “Civic Engagements: Resolute Partisanship or Reflective Deliberation.” American Journal of Political Science. 54:2, 440-458.

Keele, Luke J. and Jennifer Wolak. (2008). “Contextual Sources of Ambivalence.” Political Psychology 29:5, 653-674.

Keele, Luke J. and Suzanna DeBoef. (2008). “Taking Time Seriously: Dynamic Regression.” American Journal of Political Science. 52:1, 184-200.

Replication Materials for ECMs

Keele, Luke J. (2007). “Social Capital and the Dynamics of Trust in Government” American Journal of Political Science. 51:2, 241-254.

Keele, Bafumi, Park, and Shor (2007). “A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data.” Political Analysis. 15:2, 165-181.

Keele, Luke J. and Nathan J. Kelly (2006). “Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of LDVs.” Political Analysis. 14:2, 186-205.

Keele, Luke J. and Jennifer Wolak (2006). “Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification” British Journal of Politics. 36:4, 671-690

Keele, Luke J. (2005). “3-D Graphics in R.” The Political Methodologist 13:2, 2-6.

Keele, Luke J. (2005). “The Partisan Roots of Trust in Government” Journal of Politics. 67:3, 432-451.

Keele, Luke J. (2005). “Macro Measures and Mechanics of Social Capital” Political Analysis. 13:2, 139-156.

Keele, Luke J., Brian Fogarty, and James A. Stimson. (2004). “The Impact of Presidential Visits in the 2002 Congressional Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics