Education

Ph.D. in Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, (2003).

M.A. in Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, (2000).

B.A. in Political Science, Calvin College Grand Rapids, MI (1997).

Professional Experience

Associate Professor, Georgetown University (July 2011 – July 2016)

Associate Professor, Penn State University (July 2011 – July 2016)

Associate Professor, Ohio State University (2010-June 2011)

Assistant Professor, Ohio State University (2006-2009)

Post-doctoral Fellowship in Quantitative Research Methods, Nuffield College and Department of Politics, Oxford University (2003-2005)

Publications

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Keele, L., Small D., and Grieve R. (in press). “Randomization Based Instrumental Variables Methods with an Ap- plication to the IMPROVE Trial.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.

Keele, L., and Morgan, J. (in press). “How Strong is Strong Enough? Strengthening Instruments Through Matching and Weak Instrument Tests.” Annals of Applied Statistics.

Keele, L., Cattaneo, M., Titiunik R. and Vazquez-Bare, G. (in press). “Identification in Regression Discontinuity Designs with Multiple Cutoffs.” Journal of Politics.

Giuliano, J., Markovitz, B., Brierley, J., Levin, R., Williams, G., Keele, L., Chai See Lum, L., Dorofa- eff, T., Cruces, P., Bush, J., Nadkarni, V., Thomas, N., Fitzgerald J., Weiss, S. for the Sprout Study Investigators and Pediatric Acute Lung Injury and Sepsis Investigators (PALISI) Network. (in press). “Variability in Pediatric Severe Sepsis Managed in USA and European Intensive Care Units.” Pediatric Critical Care Medicine.

Keele, L., Linn, S., and Webb, C. (2016). “Concluding Comments.” Political Analysis. 24:1, 83–86.

Keele, L., Linn, S., and Webb, C. (2016). “Treating Time With All Due Seriousness.” Political Analysis. 24:1, 31–41.

Keele, L.. (2015). “Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead.” American Journal of Evaluation. 36:4, 500–513.

Pimentel, S., Yoon, F., and Keele, L. (2015). “Variable Ratio Matching with Fine and Near-Fine Bal- ance: An Observational Study of the Peer Health Exchange.” Statistics in Medicine. 34:30, 4070–4082.

Keele, L., and Titiunik, R. (2015). “Natural Experiments Based on Geography.” Political Science Re- search Methods. 4:1, 65–95.

Keele, L., Tingley, D., and Yamamoto, T. (2015). “Identifying Mechanisms behind Policy Interventions via Causal Mediation Analysis.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. 34:4, 937–963.

Keele, L. (2015) “The Statistics of Causal Inference.” Political Analysis. 23:3, 313–335.
Keele, L., and Titiunik, R. (2015). “Geographic Boundaries as Regression Discontinuities.” Political Analysis. 23:1, 127–155.

Keele, L., Titiunik R. and Zubizarreta, J. (2015). “Enhancing a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design Through Matching to Estimate the Effect of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 178:1, 223–239

Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D., and Yamamoto, T. (2014) “Commentary: Practical Implications of Theoretical Results for Causal Mediation Analysis.” Psychological Methods. 19:4, 482–487.

Yamamoto, T., Tingley, D., Keele, L., and Imai, K. (2014). “mediation: An R package for causal mediation analysis.” Journal of Statistical Software. 59:5, 1–38.

Keele, L., Malhotra, N., and McCubbins, C. (2013). “Do Term Limits Restrain State Fiscal Policy? Approaches for Causal Inference in Assessing the Effects of Legislative Institutions.” Legislative Studies Quarterly. 38:3, 291–326.

Keele, L., and Minozzi, W. (2013). “How Much is Minnesota Like Wisconsin? Assumptions and Coun- terfactuals in Causal Inference with Observational Data.”Political Analysis. 21:2, 193–216.

Keele, L., McConnaughy, C., and White, I. (2012). “Strengthening the Experimenter’s Toolbox: Sta- tistical Estimation of Internal Validity.” American Journal of Political Science. 56:2, 484–499.

Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D., and Yamamoto, T. (2011). “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review. 105:4, 765–789.

Imai, K., Keele, L., and Tingley, D. (2011). “A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis.” Psy- chological Methods. 15:4, 309–334.

Imai, K., Keele, L., and Yamamoto, T. (2010). “Identification, Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Mediation Effects.” Statistical Science. 25:1, 51–71.

Keele, L. “Proportionally Difficult: Testing for Nonproportional Hazards In Cox Models.” (2010). Po- litical Analysis. 18:2, 189–205.

MacKuen, M., Wolak, J., Keele, L., and Marcus, G. (2010). “Reflective or Resolute: How Emotion Guides the Deliberative and Partisan Citizen.” American Journal of Political Science. 54:2, 440–458.

Keele, L., and Wolak, J. (2008). “Contextual Sources of Ambivalence.” Political Psychology. 29:5, 653–673.

DeBoef, S., and Keele, L. (2008). “Taking Time Seriously: Dynamic Regression.” American Journal of Political Science. 52:1, 184–200.

Shor, B., Bafumi, J., Keele, L., and Park, D. (2007). “A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data.” Political Analysis. 15:2, 165–181.

Keele, L. (2007). “Social Capital and the Dynamics of Trust in Government.” American Journal of Political Science. 51:2, 241–255.

Keele, L., and Kelly, N.(2006). “Dynamic Models for Dynamic Theories: The Ins and Outs of Lagged Dependent Variables.” Political Analysis. 14:2, 186–205.

Keele, L., and Wolak, J. (2006). “Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification.” British Journal of Political Science. 36:4, 671–690.

Keele, L. (2005). “The Authorities Really Do Matter: Party Control and Trust in Government.” Journal of Politics. 67:3, 432–451.

Keele, L. (2005). “Macro Measures and Mechanics of Social Capital.” Political Analysis. 13:2, 139–156. Keele, L., Stimson, J., and Fogarty, B. (2004). “The Impact of Presidential Visits in the 2002 Congres-

sional Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 37:4, 971–986.

Books and Book Chapters

Keele, L. (2008). Semiparametric Regression for the Social Sciences. London: Wiley and Sons. 2008.

Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D., and Yamamoto, T.‘ “Causal Mediation Analysis Using R.” In Adavances in Social Science Research Using R, H. D. Vinod ed. New York: Springer, 129–154. 2010.

MacKuen, M., Wolak, J., Keele, L., Marcus, G., and Nueman, R. “The Third Way: Affective Intelli- gence and the Depiction of American Democracy.” In The Affect Effect Dynamics of Emotion In Political Thinking and Behavior. Ann Crigler, George E. Marcus, Michael MacKuen and W. Russell Neuman eds. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 2007.

MacKuen, M., Wolak, J., Keele, L., and Marcus, G. “The Measure and Mismeasure of Emotion.” In Feeling Politics: Emotion In Political Information Processing David P. Redlawsk, ed. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan. 2006.

Other Publications

Keele, L. “3-D Graphics in R.”Political Methodologist. 13:2, 2-7. 2005.

Keele, L., and Stimson, J. “Measurement Issues in the Analysis of Social Capital.” World Bank Working Paper. 2002.

Sullivan, T., Hora, J., Keele, L., McNoldy, T., and Pettis, G. “Presidential Recordings as Presidential Data – Evaluating LBJ’s Recorded Conversations.” Presidential Studies Quarterly, 29:4, 931-42. 1999.

Manuscripts In Progress

Zubizarreta, J. and Keele, L., “Optimal Multilevel Matching in Clustered Observational Studies: A Case Study of the School Voucher System in Chile.” Invited to revise and resubmit at Journal of the American Statistical Association.

Keele, L. and White, I. “African-American Turnout in Majority-Minority Districts.” Invited to revise and resubmit at Political Science Research and Methods.

Stephens, A., Keele, L. and Joffe, M. “Generalized Structural Mean Models for Evaluating Depression as a Post-treatment Effect Modifier of a Jobs Training Intervention.” Invited to revise and resubmit at Journal of Causal Inference.

Pimentel, S., Page, L., Lenard, M., Keele, L., “Optimal Multilevel Matching Using Network Flows: An Application to a Summer Reading Intervention.”

Keele, L. and Titiunik, R. “Bounding Treatment Effects Under Interference in Geographic Natural Ex- periments: An Application to All-Mail Voting in Colorado.”

Keele, L., Shah, P., White, I., and Kay, K. “Black Candidates and Black Turnout: A Study of Mayoral Elections in the New South.”

Keele, L. and Quinn, M. “What Can Be Learned from a Simple Table? Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Effects from 2×2 and 2×2×K Tables in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding.”

Keele, L. “Conditioning on Post-treatment Quantities with Structural Mean Models.” Keele, L., Elwert, F. and Stevenson, R. “Perils of the All Cause Model.”

Weiss, S., Keele, L., Balamuth, F., Vendetti, N., Fitzgerald, J., Gerber, J. “Crystalloid Fluid Choice and Outcome in Pediatric Sepsis.”

Ross, R., Keele, L., Kubis, S., Lautz, A., Dziorny, A., Denson, A., O?Connor, K., Chilutti, M., Weiss, S., Gerber, J. “Impact of Procalcitonin Availability on Antibiotic Utilization in Critically Ill Children.”

Statistical Software

Keele, L. rbounds: An R package for calculating Rosenbaum’s bounds with matched data.

Yamamoto, T., Tingley, D., Keele, L., and Imai, K. “mediation: An R package for causal mediation analysis.”

Grants, Honors, and Awards

2015 Best Software Award for the mediation package in R.

2015 Picwell Corp Grant for Research on Program Evaluation

2013 recipient of the Emerging Scholar Award for a young scholar making exceptional contributions to political methodology who is within ten years of their terminal degree, awarded by the Society of Political Methodology.

2012 National Institutes of Mental Health Grant RC4-MH-092722-01 Subcontractor.
2011 Thomas R. Ten Have Citation for “exceptionally creative or skillful research on causal inference.” 2002 Royster Society of Fellows Dissertation Fellowship. University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. 2002 UNC-Chapel Hill Royster Society of Fellows Dissertation Completion Fellowship.
2001 National Science Foundation Dissertation Improvement Grant (SES-0112198).

Conference Presentations

Joint Statistical Meetings. (2015)
Atlantic Causal Inference Meeting. (2011-2012, 2015)
Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management, Fall Research Conference. (2012-2013, 2015) West Coast Experiments Conference. (2013)
The Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (2001-2006, 2008-2015)
The Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association (2001-2015)
The Annual Summer Political Methodology Meetings (2001-2005, 2008-2015)

Professional Activities

Associate Editor, Journal of Causal Inference Associate Editor, Observational Studies Editorial Board, Journal of Politics

Referee for American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, American Jour- nal of Sociology, American Sociological Review, Biometrical Journal, Biometrics, Biostatistics, British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, Cambridge University Press, Economic & Politics, Economics and Human Biology, Electoral Studies, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Jour- nal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, Journal of 5

Experimental Political Science, Journal of Politics, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, B, C, Medical Decision Making, National Science Foundation, Oxford University Press, PLos One, Politi- cal Science Research Methods, Prevention Science, Psychological Methods, Political Analysis, Political Behavior, Political Psychology, Public Opinion Quarterly, State Politics and Policy Quarterly, Statistics in Medicine, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Structural Equation Modeling, Wiley & Sons.

Member of American Political Science Association, Methodology Section; Midwest Political Science Association; American Statistical Association; American Economic Association.

Consulting Experience

Educational Program Evaluation. American Institutes for Research. (2013-Present) Educational Program Evaluation. Villanova University. (2011-2012)
Statistical Consultant. Booz Allen Hamilton. (2010-2012)
Statistical Consultant. Science Applications Corp. (2010-2012)

Invited Presentations

Georgetown University (2015); Washington University, St. Louis (2015); Yale University (2015); Univer- sity of Michigan (2015); University of California, Berkeley (2015); University of California, Davis (2015); University of Pennsylvania, Graduate School of Education (2015); Georgetown University (2014); NYU (2014); Columbia University (2014); Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University; Oxford University (2014); American University (2013); West Coast Experiments Conference, Stan- ford University (2013); University of Illinois, Champagne-Urbana (2013); Abt Associates, Evaluation Methods Center Speaker Series (2013); Texas A&M (2013); American Institutes for Research (2013); Stanford Political Science Dept (2012); Stanford Graduate School of Business (2012); Columbia Univer- sity (2012); Yale University (2011); University of Wisconsin, Madison (2011); University of Pennsylvania (2011); New York University (2011); Temple University (2011); Texas A&M (2010); Penn State Univer- sity (2010); University of Michigan (2010); Columbia University (2010); University of Rochester (2009); New York University (2009); Columbia University (2008); Princeton University (2008); New York Uni- versity (2006); Nuffield College, Oxford University (2004); Washington University in St. Louis (2004); University of South Carolina (2004); University of California-Berkeley (2004); Pennsylvania State Uni- versity (2004); University of Rochester (2004); Ohio State University (2004); University of California, Davis (2003); University of Texas at Dallas (2003).